Behavioral consequences of disasters: a five-stage model of population behavior.

OBJECTIVE We propose a model of population behavior in the aftermath of disasters. METHODS We conducted a qualitative analysis of an empirical dataset of 339 disasters throughout the world spanning from 1950 to 2005. RESULTS We developed a model of population behavior that is based on 2 fundamental assumptions: (i) behavior is predictable and (ii) population behavior will progress sequentially through 5 stages from the moment the hazard begins until is complete. CONCLUSIONS Understanding the progression of population behavior during a disaster can improve the efficiency and appropriateness of institutional efforts aimed at population preservation after large-scale traumatic events. Additionally, the opportunity for population-level intervention in the aftermath of such events will improve population health.